Mentioning stocks, I think ATVI is worth buying as well

I guess I should make a legal disclaimer that I’m an immature investor who lost more money than he made in the Stock market so don’t take my word for stock tips. However, I like to share my analysis and get people’s opinions and feedback on what I think is going on in the industry.

So I think Activision-Blizzard stock is definitely worth buying right now. Based on their sales figures and potential for 2010, analysts expect an upside of about 25-30% on the stock price.

Activision Blizzard reported better than expected results driven by Call of Duty and Guitar Hero franchises as well as World of Warcraft. During a challenging economic climate, Activision Blizzard was the #1 U.S. third-party console and handheld publisher3.For the first half of 2009,Activision Blizzard had two of the top-five best-selling titles in the U.S.A and Europe – Guitar Hero World Tour and Call of Duty: World at War.

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Sony!!! Should I buy their stock?

Before I left the US, I had a good chat with several friends including Mark Deloura about the future of Sony and their potential next steps and where their market is headed. Now that I’m in Tokyo, I got to attend the Sony Developer Conference and saw up close and personal some of their efforts from their mother land office.

Here some interesting evidence that Sony is heading the right direction:
– More PSN offerings including
– PS1 and PS2 games
– General media content including first party exclusive programming like Qore and many other media offerings from 3rd parties
– Enhanced PS1 and PS3 re-releases on Blu-Ray. For example the God Of War 1&2 games for the PS3(announced here)
– PS3 price cut and large hard drive capacity along with a slimmer (and faster model)

– A great line up of exclusive and non-exclusive games scheduled for 2009 and 2010 including: Heavy Rain (exclusive), Final Fantasy XIII (exclusive to Sony in Japan), Final Fantasy Vs XIII (exclusive to Sony everywhere), The Agency, God Of War III (exclusive), Uncharted 2(exclusive), Assassin’s Creed 2(non-exclusive) and Assassin’s Creed PSP(exclusive obviously)
– Sony is investing in new technologies like Facial and photo recognition (announced here) also as we know they have demonstrated the Sony motion controller

– Potential PS Phone (check here and here)
– Sony will introduce 3D LCDs by 2010 (check here)

Well after all that, I still have not answered the question. Is it a good time to buy Sony stock? I think the answer is yes. Its based on evidence that Sony has been trying to cut a lot of fat and increase their PS3 sales. Now the issue is that Sony is a huge company and their gaming sector is only a portion of their business so if they do well in games, that does not mean that the company will do well overall. I would like to add more analysis here but I gotta head to CEDEC tomorrow. So what do you think?

Smart Stops

This post is based on an email I received from the SF IBD Meetup Group (most of it is copied verbatim)

There is a new startup company called SmartStops.net, that helps investors know when to sell.

Their solution is based on facilitating and optimizing the use of stop loss protection and making it easier for the investors to take protective action. At the end of each market day, they publish an updated SmartStop for each covered stock calculated for use the next trading day. If the stock falls and triggers its SmartStop, it is an indication that the stock has entered a downtrend and it is recommended that you sell the stock or take other protective action.

They monitor their member’s portfolios continuously and email them when a SmartStop is triggered. If you receive a SmartStop QuickAlert – Take Action.

Their algorithms are designed and maintained by Chuck LeBeau, a well regarded author on technical analysis. Their stops move closer to or further from the stock as trading patterns dictate to keep you in up-trends longer but exit you early in down-trends. Their stops are designed for investors more so than active day traders. They do not hug the stock close enough to trigger daily trades and do not adjust intraday. However, traders, as we know are information hounds and many day traders are early adopters of their solution.

Recent articles in Barron’s, Kiplinger’s, WSJ, Fortune and The Street.com can be found at:

http://smartstops.net/PublicPages/Press.aspx

They are always looking for feedback from experienced investors. A guy I know who works with them spoke with the CEO and he would like to extend a free trial offer to the IBD Meetup group.

The IBD Meetup Group Code Is: IBD90FREE.

This code will give all members 90 days free SmartStops Portfolio Protection Service at the 10 or 20 stock portfolio level.

Microsoft & Yahoo …. is it gonna happen?

Check here. Jerry Yang is suggesting that Microsoft buys Yahoo. Looking at their market quotes today, the are both at:

MSFT 21.63 -0.45 (-2.04%) 192.41B
YHOO 14.45 +0.53 (3.81%) 20.02B

Yahoo went up more than $0.50 after Yang announced that Yahoo is up for grabs again. Yahoo’s 52 weeks low was $11.25 and Microsoft 52 weeks low was $20.65. This is an opportunity to make some cash in a depressed market, however, knowing that the market is headed for worse times, I wonder if this deal would happen now. Microsoft initial offer to buy Yahoo earlier this year was valued at $33/share. Yahoo is much cheaper now and MS still got the cash. MS could even do a share for share matching deal buying Yahoo at $21.63/share which would be a premium for Yahoo’s value right now and fitting to MS. I don’t think Yahoo can argue a price in the $30s anymore given the economy and their failed attempt to collaborate with Google. Reuters said the following:

Shares of Yahoo surged after a report surfaced online that the Web pioneer’s Chief Executive Jerry Yang was leaving the Company and that Yahoo was in late stage talks to sell the whole company to Microsoft for between $17 per share and $19 per share. Speculation about a possible deal between the two companies intensified after Google Inc scrapped plans for a Web search advertising partnership with Yahoo.

I would wait until we can find out more about MS’s real intentions. Off course you could take a risk and buy Yahoo now, let me know what you think.

Stocks worth buying

Sony

SNE 24.68 -0.21(-0.84%) 24.71B

Intel

INTC 15.28 -0.84(-5.21%) 84.93B

Nvidia

NVDA 8.76 -0.22(-2.51%) 4.85B

Nintendo

NTDOY 43.30 +0.60(1.41%) 48.97B

Visa

V 57.74 -2.07(-3.46%) 48.68B

Amazon

AMZN 53.25 -5.20(-8.90%) 22.87B

EA

ERTS 22.66 -0.74(-3.16%) 7.20B

The problem is finding the right time to buy. I’m happy I did not buy yesterday cause I thought the market would react to Obama’s election. Here are the indicators from Google Finance:

9,295.06 -330.22 (-3.43%)
970.87 -34.88 (-3.47%)
1,714.98 -65.14 (-3.66%)

The Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P are all down. We might be heading to worse times. So hold your cash for now and don’t buy. The sweet point where you should buy is close though. We have to keep a lookout. If anyone has any insights, please let me know. The world’s best investors make their wealth by buying when times are bad and selling when times are good. Thats how you milk the market. The worst thing happens to people who sell in bad times and buy in good times. It takes a lot of discipline and understanding of the market dynamics to make the right decision. Unfortunately, I do not have that information and I don’t have the time to learn the ins and outs of the market.

Stocks not doing too good today

In the Games industry, Midway, Ubisoft, THQ, Activision, SCi, EA, Take Two, MS, and Sony are all down. Ubisoft has good numbers from last year but they are delaying the release of some games this year. Assasin’s Creed must have done better than expected.

Surprisingly, Yahoo and Amazon are both up a little bit. Yahoo went down on 12/31 to $23.20, now its at $24.01. Even Google and Baidu are down today.

Semiconductor is down … almost every company I track is down; Intel, AMD, TI, Cadence, Altera, Xilinx, Mentor Graphics…etc. Also all networking companies are down; Cisco, Juniper, Nortel, Foundary, and others. Same for Apple, Sun, HP, and even IBM. Not a pretty first trading day!

More rumors about Intel acquiring Nvidia are surfacing. Nvidia is down to $33.04 although it has been picked as company of the year by Forbes.