Mentioning stocks, I think ATVI is worth buying as well

I guess I should make a legal disclaimer that I’m an immature investor who lost more money than he made in the Stock market so don’t take my word for stock tips. However, I like to share my analysis and get people’s opinions and feedback on what I think is going on in the industry.

So I think Activision-Blizzard stock is definitely worth buying right now. Based on their sales figures and potential for 2010, analysts expect an upside of about 25-30% on the stock price.

Activision Blizzard reported better than expected results driven by Call of Duty and Guitar Hero franchises as well as World of Warcraft. During a challenging economic climate, Activision Blizzard was the #1 U.S. third-party console and handheld publisher3.For the first half of 2009,Activision Blizzard had two of the top-five best-selling titles in the U.S.A and Europe – Guitar Hero World Tour and Call of Duty: World at War.

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Sony!!! Should I buy their stock?

Before I left the US, I had a good chat with several friends including Mark Deloura about the future of Sony and their potential next steps and where their market is headed. Now that I’m in Tokyo, I got to attend the Sony Developer Conference and saw up close and personal some of their efforts from their mother land office.

Here some interesting evidence that Sony is heading the right direction:
– More PSN offerings including
– PS1 and PS2 games
– General media content including first party exclusive programming like Qore and many other media offerings from 3rd parties
– Enhanced PS1 and PS3 re-releases on Blu-Ray. For example the God Of War 1&2 games for the PS3(announced here)
– PS3 price cut and large hard drive capacity along with a slimmer (and faster model)

– A great line up of exclusive and non-exclusive games scheduled for 2009 and 2010 including: Heavy Rain (exclusive), Final Fantasy XIII (exclusive to Sony in Japan), Final Fantasy Vs XIII (exclusive to Sony everywhere), The Agency, God Of War III (exclusive), Uncharted 2(exclusive), Assassin’s Creed 2(non-exclusive) and Assassin’s Creed PSP(exclusive obviously)
– Sony is investing in new technologies like Facial and photo recognition (announced here) also as we know they have demonstrated the Sony motion controller

– Potential PS Phone (check here and here)
– Sony will introduce 3D LCDs by 2010 (check here)

Well after all that, I still have not answered the question. Is it a good time to buy Sony stock? I think the answer is yes. Its based on evidence that Sony has been trying to cut a lot of fat and increase their PS3 sales. Now the issue is that Sony is a huge company and their gaming sector is only a portion of their business so if they do well in games, that does not mean that the company will do well overall. I would like to add more analysis here but I gotta head to CEDEC tomorrow. So what do you think?

Sony takes a major Stock hit

Check here

Bloomberg reports that Sony’s shares fell to their lowest point all week following Credit Suisse’s investment rating cut, dropping 5.9 percent to close at 1,825 yen ($20.32).

Sony …. sighs … the PS3 has not done as well as they expected. Little Big Planet did not sell much more units and Microsoft stole the exclusivity of Final Fantasy. Can it get any worse? Sure … Metal Gear Solid 4 on the Xbox360, that would be a huge hit. Look at the following images:
Sales Rates Nov 2007 - Nov 2008
Sales of Current Gen consoles
Wii and PS3 sales relative to Xbox360 install base (2nd year)
Top shooters on all platforms
Top 20 Software by Unit Sales

All the figures show that the PS3 is significantly is under performing. Sony has invested huge amounts of money in the Cell technology which has been painful for developers to say the least. Only if they had made it a shared memory architecture. Now Sony is laying off people left and right and major restructure is expected.

Plagued by what analysts say are problems with its operating structure and high costs, Sony recently said it would cut 8,000 employees — about 4 percent of its workforce — with the aim of saving $1.1 billion dollars. The company suggested at the time that it might “carefully review and make structural changes” surrounding the PlayStation business.

I think Sony has learned a tough lesson in this console generation and I’m still a firm believe in their ability to turn it around (maybe not so much for the PS3), but definitely for the PS4. They will have to move to a platform architecture that is really easy to develop for and innovate on a couple of things to add something new. The reason I wrote all this is to say, that Sony stock will probably go down further and then it will be a good time to buy.

Smart Stops

This post is based on an email I received from the SF IBD Meetup Group (most of it is copied verbatim)

There is a new startup company called SmartStops.net, that helps investors know when to sell.

Their solution is based on facilitating and optimizing the use of stop loss protection and making it easier for the investors to take protective action. At the end of each market day, they publish an updated SmartStop for each covered stock calculated for use the next trading day. If the stock falls and triggers its SmartStop, it is an indication that the stock has entered a downtrend and it is recommended that you sell the stock or take other protective action.

They monitor their member’s portfolios continuously and email them when a SmartStop is triggered. If you receive a SmartStop QuickAlert – Take Action.

Their algorithms are designed and maintained by Chuck LeBeau, a well regarded author on technical analysis. Their stops move closer to or further from the stock as trading patterns dictate to keep you in up-trends longer but exit you early in down-trends. Their stops are designed for investors more so than active day traders. They do not hug the stock close enough to trigger daily trades and do not adjust intraday. However, traders, as we know are information hounds and many day traders are early adopters of their solution.

Recent articles in Barron’s, Kiplinger’s, WSJ, Fortune and The Street.com can be found at:

http://smartstops.net/PublicPages/Press.aspx

They are always looking for feedback from experienced investors. A guy I know who works with them spoke with the CEO and he would like to extend a free trial offer to the IBD Meetup group.

The IBD Meetup Group Code Is: IBD90FREE.

This code will give all members 90 days free SmartStops Portfolio Protection Service at the 10 or 20 stock portfolio level.

Microsoft & Yahoo …. is it gonna happen?

Check here. Jerry Yang is suggesting that Microsoft buys Yahoo. Looking at their market quotes today, the are both at:

MSFT 21.63 -0.45 (-2.04%) 192.41B
YHOO 14.45 +0.53 (3.81%) 20.02B

Yahoo went up more than $0.50 after Yang announced that Yahoo is up for grabs again. Yahoo’s 52 weeks low was $11.25 and Microsoft 52 weeks low was $20.65. This is an opportunity to make some cash in a depressed market, however, knowing that the market is headed for worse times, I wonder if this deal would happen now. Microsoft initial offer to buy Yahoo earlier this year was valued at $33/share. Yahoo is much cheaper now and MS still got the cash. MS could even do a share for share matching deal buying Yahoo at $21.63/share which would be a premium for Yahoo’s value right now and fitting to MS. I don’t think Yahoo can argue a price in the $30s anymore given the economy and their failed attempt to collaborate with Google. Reuters said the following:

Shares of Yahoo surged after a report surfaced online that the Web pioneer’s Chief Executive Jerry Yang was leaving the Company and that Yahoo was in late stage talks to sell the whole company to Microsoft for between $17 per share and $19 per share. Speculation about a possible deal between the two companies intensified after Google Inc scrapped plans for a Web search advertising partnership with Yahoo.

I would wait until we can find out more about MS’s real intentions. Off course you could take a risk and buy Yahoo now, let me know what you think.

Stocks worth buying

Sony

SNE 24.68 -0.21(-0.84%) 24.71B

Intel

INTC 15.28 -0.84(-5.21%) 84.93B

Nvidia

NVDA 8.76 -0.22(-2.51%) 4.85B

Nintendo

NTDOY 43.30 +0.60(1.41%) 48.97B

Visa

V 57.74 -2.07(-3.46%) 48.68B

Amazon

AMZN 53.25 -5.20(-8.90%) 22.87B

EA

ERTS 22.66 -0.74(-3.16%) 7.20B

The problem is finding the right time to buy. I’m happy I did not buy yesterday cause I thought the market would react to Obama’s election. Here are the indicators from Google Finance:

9,295.06 -330.22 (-3.43%)
970.87 -34.88 (-3.47%)
1,714.98 -65.14 (-3.66%)

The Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P are all down. We might be heading to worse times. So hold your cash for now and don’t buy. The sweet point where you should buy is close though. We have to keep a lookout. If anyone has any insights, please let me know. The world’s best investors make their wealth by buying when times are bad and selling when times are good. Thats how you milk the market. The worst thing happens to people who sell in bad times and buy in good times. It takes a lot of discipline and understanding of the market dynamics to make the right decision. Unfortunately, I do not have that information and I don’t have the time to learn the ins and outs of the market.

When is it a good time to invest?

They say when there is blood on the streets buy property!! The US economy state now is nothing less than blood on the streets. People are losing money left and right and financial institutions are closing doors. The big question is when is it a good time to invest?

Financial gurus always advise to buy low and sell high. Well the stocks are low now but are they going to get lower???

Companies like Google and Apple are now valued at $338.11 and $89.79. Yahoo is at $13.76. And there are talks about a merger between Yahoo and AOL here. If you buy Yahoo now and they merge, then you will make some money for sure. It might take a while though.

Ah …. I wish I knew more about stocks and investing. I should invest the time to learn. If you have any good suggestions, let me know.

Take Two Still independent

Looks like Take Two will not be part of EA after all. According to this Gamasutra article, Take two will remain independent. The success of Grand Theft Auto IV infused a lot of cash to Take Two that made it sustain a strong negotiating position with EA. However, looking at Take Two’s stock today, they are valued at $15.16. EA’s offer was to buy them for $25.74/share.

Take-Two CEO Ben Feder says:

Our strong cash position – with no debt and an undrawn $140 million credit facility – gives us the financial flexibility to continue to do what we do best: innovate and create the great games that our customers have come to expect.

Say what you want Ben, your stock value is more than $10 less per share.

I’m losing money by saving it … huh

You might ask … what a funny title. But that’s the truth. Due to the downturn in the US economy right now, the I’m actually losing money by putting money in my 401K account. Although I have a diversified portfolio of stocks, bonds, mid cap, large cap stocks, fortune 500, and international stocks, I am still losing money. Had I kept the money to myself, I would have been better off. Off course, you say that it will get better but its just really annoying to see your money getting wasted like that.

The value of the US dollar is horrible compared to most foreign currencies and on top of that, real state prices are not going down that much in the bay area. You would expect with all these economic problems, the house prices would go down significantly. That is not the case in San Francisco at least. Especially in the newly developed high rises, a 1 bedroom apartment sells for a minimum of $600,000. A nice spacious 3 bedrooms apartment costs you around $1.4 million. And that’s if its on a low floor. Add a couple of hundred thousands as you go higher in the building because of the “better views”.