The State of Online Community 2008 : Key Findings from the Online Community Research Network

Advertisements

Japanese Economy in Recession – US to follow

Based on BBC Article here

“The downtrend in the economy will continue for the time being as global growth slows,”

said Japanese Economy Minister Kaoru Yosano.

“We need to bear in mind that economic conditions could worsen further as the US and European financial crisis deepens, worries of economic downturn heighten and stock and foreign exchange markets make big swings,”

Mr Yosano added.

“The risk of Japan posting a third or fourth straight quarterly contraction is growing, given the fact that we can no longer rely on exports,”

said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute.

The US market is expected to follow. What does this mean? Don’t buy now. Wait and buy in the heart of the recession when things look the worst. Don’t look at this as a disaster but as an opportunity. It is in fact a disaster if you were planning on cashing out your 401K this year, then you just got unlucky. I’m losing a lot of money in my 401K but hopefully the market will rebound and I will redeem my losses.

According to Reuters article here:

The U.S. economy is in recession and will contract at a faster pace in the fourth quarter, extending the decline into early 2009 as high unemployment crimps consumer spending, a survey showed…..
“With the recession continuing into 2009, GDP growth next year is expected to be a meager 0.7 percent. This would be the slowest growth over a two-year period since the early 1980s,” said Varvares, who is also the president of Macroeconomic Advisers.

Despite the gloomy economic outlook, the Federal Reserve would probably keep its benchmark overnight lending rate steady at 1 percent, raising it by 25 basis points in the last quarter of 2009, according to the survey.

An interesting Debate

Finkelstein versus Dershowitz debate on Amy Goodman’s Democracy Now program. Here is the first video out of 11 parts on Youtube. This is just a great example of how Professor Dershowitz is an absolute biased misleading scholar.

Dershowitz caused Finkelstein not to get tenure at his university and Noam Chomsky defended Finkelstein in the following video:

Smart Stops

This post is based on an email I received from the SF IBD Meetup Group (most of it is copied verbatim)

There is a new startup company called SmartStops.net, that helps investors know when to sell.

Their solution is based on facilitating and optimizing the use of stop loss protection and making it easier for the investors to take protective action. At the end of each market day, they publish an updated SmartStop for each covered stock calculated for use the next trading day. If the stock falls and triggers its SmartStop, it is an indication that the stock has entered a downtrend and it is recommended that you sell the stock or take other protective action.

They monitor their member’s portfolios continuously and email them when a SmartStop is triggered. If you receive a SmartStop QuickAlert – Take Action.

Their algorithms are designed and maintained by Chuck LeBeau, a well regarded author on technical analysis. Their stops move closer to or further from the stock as trading patterns dictate to keep you in up-trends longer but exit you early in down-trends. Their stops are designed for investors more so than active day traders. They do not hug the stock close enough to trigger daily trades and do not adjust intraday. However, traders, as we know are information hounds and many day traders are early adopters of their solution.

Recent articles in Barron’s, Kiplinger’s, WSJ, Fortune and The Street.com can be found at:

http://smartstops.net/PublicPages/Press.aspx

They are always looking for feedback from experienced investors. A guy I know who works with them spoke with the CEO and he would like to extend a free trial offer to the IBD Meetup group.

The IBD Meetup Group Code Is: IBD90FREE.

This code will give all members 90 days free SmartStops Portfolio Protection Service at the 10 or 20 stock portfolio level.

Microsoft & Yahoo …. is it gonna happen?

Check here. Jerry Yang is suggesting that Microsoft buys Yahoo. Looking at their market quotes today, the are both at:

MSFT 21.63 -0.45 (-2.04%) 192.41B
YHOO 14.45 +0.53 (3.81%) 20.02B

Yahoo went up more than $0.50 after Yang announced that Yahoo is up for grabs again. Yahoo’s 52 weeks low was $11.25 and Microsoft 52 weeks low was $20.65. This is an opportunity to make some cash in a depressed market, however, knowing that the market is headed for worse times, I wonder if this deal would happen now. Microsoft initial offer to buy Yahoo earlier this year was valued at $33/share. Yahoo is much cheaper now and MS still got the cash. MS could even do a share for share matching deal buying Yahoo at $21.63/share which would be a premium for Yahoo’s value right now and fitting to MS. I don’t think Yahoo can argue a price in the $30s anymore given the economy and their failed attempt to collaborate with Google. Reuters said the following:

Shares of Yahoo surged after a report surfaced online that the Web pioneer’s Chief Executive Jerry Yang was leaving the Company and that Yahoo was in late stage talks to sell the whole company to Microsoft for between $17 per share and $19 per share. Speculation about a possible deal between the two companies intensified after Google Inc scrapped plans for a Web search advertising partnership with Yahoo.

I would wait until we can find out more about MS’s real intentions. Off course you could take a risk and buy Yahoo now, let me know what you think.

Stocks worth buying

Sony

SNE 24.68 -0.21(-0.84%) 24.71B

Intel

INTC 15.28 -0.84(-5.21%) 84.93B

Nvidia

NVDA 8.76 -0.22(-2.51%) 4.85B

Nintendo

NTDOY 43.30 +0.60(1.41%) 48.97B

Visa

V 57.74 -2.07(-3.46%) 48.68B

Amazon

AMZN 53.25 -5.20(-8.90%) 22.87B

EA

ERTS 22.66 -0.74(-3.16%) 7.20B

The problem is finding the right time to buy. I’m happy I did not buy yesterday cause I thought the market would react to Obama’s election. Here are the indicators from Google Finance:

9,295.06 -330.22 (-3.43%)
970.87 -34.88 (-3.47%)
1,714.98 -65.14 (-3.66%)

The Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P are all down. We might be heading to worse times. So hold your cash for now and don’t buy. The sweet point where you should buy is close though. We have to keep a lookout. If anyone has any insights, please let me know. The world’s best investors make their wealth by buying when times are bad and selling when times are good. Thats how you milk the market. The worst thing happens to people who sell in bad times and buy in good times. It takes a lot of discipline and understanding of the market dynamics to make the right decision. Unfortunately, I do not have that information and I don’t have the time to learn the ins and outs of the market.

How to save lives while you are sleeping!!

Yes, you can make the world a better place while you are sleeping and it does not cost you much. All you need is a computer. Check the Folding @ Home project page for details.

I usually leave my PS3 unfolding proteins at night while I’m sleeping and I wake feeling great that I made the world a better place while resting. My Folding @ Home page can be found here. My Team id is 61686, join me if you can and lets make the world a better place while we are sleeping 🙂

Proteins are biology’s workhorses — its “nanomachines.” Before proteins can carry out these important functions, they assemble themselves, or “fold.” The process of protein folding, while critical and fundamental to virtually all of biology, in many ways remains a mystery.

Moreover, when proteins do not fold correctly (i.e. “misfold”), there can be serious consequences, including many well known diseases, such as Alzheimer’s, Mad Cow (BSE), CJD, ALS, Huntington’s, Parkinson’s disease, and many Cancers and cancer-related syndromes.

Folding@home is a distributed computing project — people from throughout the world download and run software to band together to make one of the largest supercomputers in the world. Every computer takes the project closer to our goals. Folding@home uses novel computational methods coupled to distributed computing, to simulate problems millions of times more challenging than previously achieved.

What have we done so far?
We have had several successes. You can read about them on our Science page, on our Awards page, or go directly to our Results page.

What is protein folding and how is folding linked to disease? You can help by simply running a piece of software.

Want to learn more?
Click on the links on the left for downloads or more information. You can also download our Executive Summary, which is a PDF suitable for distribution. Also, you can learn more by watching recent seminars (Stanford BMI ; Xerox PARC). One can also help by donating funds to the project, via Stanford University.